An Forecasting Platform User Earned $436,000 from Wagers on the Ouster of Maduro.
A bettor earned a substantial sum by predicting the removal of Venezuela's president just before it was publicly declared, leading to inquiries about whether someone profited from inside knowledge of the event.
Sudden Shift in Predictions
Predictions made on the forecasting site, an online prediction market, that the leader would be out of power by the end of January increased in the hours before President Donald Trump announced on the weekend that the Venezuelan leader had been seized.
One account, which registered on the site last month and placed four wagers, all on Venezuela, earned over $436,000 from a modest bet of $32.5K.
The identity is unknown. The anonymous account had only a string of letters and numbers for identification.
Odds Fluctuate Before News Break
Trading information shows that traders assessed the probability of Maduro's exit at just under 7% in the late afternoon of the Friday before the event.
Yet these probabilities had jumped to 11% by shortly before midnight and skyrocketed in the early hours of Saturday, suggesting a sharp shift in positions just before the official statement was made.
"This particular bet has all the hallmarks of a bet based on non-public details," said Dennis Kelleher.
A small number of other traders also earned large payouts from predicting the capture.
Political Attention Grows
Elected officials are growing concerned.
A new rule introduced on recently seeks to ban government employees from placing bets on prediction markets if they have "insider details" related to a bet.
The Prediction Market Landscape
Prediction markets have grown significantly in recent years, with participants able to wager on everything from elections to politics.
The industry were examined under the last presidential term. Yet it has received a warmer welcome during the present political climate.
Using confidential knowledge is illegal in the traditional financial markets, but there are less oversight in the prediction market industry.
An official representative for a competing service said their site "explicitly prohibits insider trading of any form."
